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Wednesday, August 06, 2003

The Probability That a Real-Estate Agent Is Cheating You (and Other Riddles of Modern Life): "In Levitt's view, economics is a science with excellent tools for gaining answers but a serious shortage of interesting questions. His particular gift is the ability to ask such questions. For instance: If drug dealers make so much money, why do they still live with their mothers? Which is more dangerous, a gun or a swimming pool? What really caused crime rates to plunge during the past decade? Do real-estate agents have their clients' best interests at heart? Why do black parents give their children names that may hurt their career prospects? Do schoolteachers cheat to meet high-stakes testing standards? Is sumo wrestling corrupt"

He is an intuitionist. He sifts through a pile of data to find a story that no one else had found. He devises a way to measure an effect that veteran economists had declared unmeasurable.

''Unwantedness leads to high crime; abortion leads to less unwantedness; abortion leads to less crime.''

focusing very much on the issue of reverse causality,''

The problem was that his data couldn't tell him who was a good candidate and who wasn't. It was therefore impossible to tease out the effect of the money. As with the police/crime rate puzzle, he had to trick the data

''If you own a gun and have a swimming pool in the yard, the swimming pool is almost 100 times more likely to kill a child than the gun is.''

Is black culture a cause of racial inequality or is it a consequence?

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eureka, California, United States
As Popeye once said,"I ams what I am." But then again maybe I'm not